Stuart is investigating the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the size of the population for a particular country.
He takes a random sample of 9 years and records the size of the population, t millions, and the GDP, g billion dollars for each of these years.
The data are summarised as
n=9∑t=7.87∑g=144.84∑g2=3624.41Stt=1.29Stg=40.25
(a) Calculate the product moment correlation coefficient between t and g
(3)
(b) Give an interpretation of your product moment correlation coefficient.
(1)
(c) Find the equation of the least squares regression line of g on t in the form g=a+bt
(4)
(d) Give an interpretation of the value of b in your regression line.
(1)
(e) (i) Use the regression line from part (c) to estimate the GDP, in billions of dollars, for a population of 7000000
(2)
(ii) Comment on the reliability of your answer in part (i). Give a reason, in context, for your answer.
(1)
Using the regression line from part (c), Stuart estimates that for a population increase of x million there will be an increase of 0.1 billion dollars in GDP.
(f) Find the value of x
(2)
解答
(a)
解法一
思路
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先求 Sgg,再代入 PMCC 公式。
答题过程
展开Sgg===∑g2−n(∑g)23624.41−9144.8421293.4516…
Therefore
r===SttSggStg1.29(1293.4516…)40.250.985…
So
r=0.985.
(b)
解法一
思路
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r 为正且很接近 1,表示 population 越大,GDP 一般越高。
答题过程
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As the population increases, the GDP generally increases.
(c)
解法一
思路
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回归线 g on t 的斜率是 Stg/Stt,截距是 gˉ−btˉ。
答题过程
展开b===SttStg1.2940.2531.20155…
Also,
a===gˉ−btˉ9144.84−31.20155…(97.87)−11.19068…
Thus
g=−11.2+31.2t.
(d)
解法一
思路
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t 的单位是 million,g 的单位是 billion dollars。所以斜率表示 population 每增加 1 million,GDP 平均增加多少 billion dollars。
答题过程
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For each increase of 1 million in population, GDP increases by about 31.2 billion dollars on average.
(e)(i)
解法一
思路
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7000000 人即 7 million,所以代入 t=7。
答题过程
展开g==−11.2+31.2(7)207.2.
The estimated GDP is
207 billion dollars
to 3 significant figures.
(e)(ii)
解法一
思路
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样本的平均 population 只有 97.87≈0.874 million,而 7 million 远大于这个范围,估计不可靠。
答题过程
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The estimate is unreliable because a population of 7 million is much greater than the mean population in the sample.