题目
Problem
The Venn diagram shows the events A, B, C and D, where p, q, r and s are probabilities.
Venn diagram
(a) Write down the value of
(i) P(A)
(ii) P(A∣B)
(iii) P(A∣C)
(3)
Given that P(B′∩D′)=107 and P(C∣D)=53
(b) find the exact value of q and the exact value of r
(6)
Given also that P(B∪C′)=85
(c) find the exact value of s
(2)
解答
(a)
解法一
思路
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这题主要读 Venn 图。B 完全在 A 中,所以 P(A∣B)=1;A 与 C 不相交,所以 P(A∣C)=0。
答题过程
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From the Venn diagram,
P(A)=0.13+0.12=0.25.
Since B is inside A,
P(A∣B)=1.
Since A and C do not overlap,
P(A∣C)=0.
(b)
解法一
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由 P(C∣D)=53 得 q+rq=53。再用 P(B′∩D′)=107 和总概率为 1,可推出 q+r=0.18,然后联立。
答题过程
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Using P(C∣D)=53,
q+rq=53.
So
5q=3q+3r,
and therefore
q=23r.
From the diagram and P(B′∩D′)=107,
0.13+p+s=107.
Using the total probability,
p+q+r+s+0.12+0.13=1.
Subtracting the first equation from the total gives
q+r+0.12=0.30.
So
q+r=0.18.
Now solve with q=23r:
23r+r=0.18.
Hence
r=0.072=1259,
and
q=0.108=25027.
(c)
解法一
思路
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B∪C′ 包含 B 区域、A only 区域、D only 区域和外部 s,不包含 C only 的 p 与 q。
答题过程
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From the diagram,
P(B∪C′)=0.13+0.12+r+s.
Using P(B∪C′)=85 and r=0.072,
85=s=0.13+0.12+0.072+s0.303.