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IAL 2026 Jan S3 A Q5

A Level / Edexcel / S3

IAL 2026 Jan A Paper · Question 5

题目

Problem

Jeff records the number of births announced in his local weekly newspaper each week for nn consecutive weeks, where nn is an integer. He decides the resulting data can be modelled as independent samples from a Poisson distribution with mean 2.8 and calculates the expected frequencies using this model.

The following table shows the observed frequencies and the expected frequencies, to 2 decimal places.

The observed and expected frequencies for 5 births are not given.

Number of birthsObserved frequency (OO)Expected frequency (EE)
085.84
12716.35
22522.88
31621.36
41214.95
5aabb
623.91
7\geqslant 712.34

(a) Find the value of aa and the value of bb

(2)

The value of (OE)2E\sum \dfrac{(O - E)^2}{E} for the given values for the number of births 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 is 9.86

(b) Using a 5% significance level, test whether or not this Poisson model is suitable. Show your working clearly, stating your hypotheses, test statistic and critical value.

(7)
(Total for Question 5 is 9 marks)
题目中文翻译

Jeff 连续 n 周记录当地周报上每周公布的新生婴儿数,其中 n 为整数。他认为这些数据可以用均值为 2.8 的泊松分布的独立样本来建模,并据此计算期望频数。

下表给出了观测频数和期望频数,期望频数保留到 2 位小数。

出生数为 5 的观测频数和期望频数没有给出。

出生数观测频数 (O)期望频数 (E)
085.84
12716.35
22522.88
31621.36
41214.95
5ab
623.91
≥ 712.34

(a) 求 a 和 b 的值。

对于出生数 0、1、2、3 和 4,∑((O - E)^2 / E) = 9.86。

(b) 在 5% 的显著性水平下检验该泊松模型是否适合。请清楚写出你的过程,说明原假设、检验统计量和临界值。

解答